What do you think about the ferrosilicon market in 2025?
The ferrosilicon market is affected by the dual carbon policy, and new driving factors may emerge in the market. The following is a specific analysis of the ferrosilicon
market in 2025:
1. Supply situation
It is expected that the output of ferrosilicon will reach 5.78 million tons in 2025, an increase of 4% year-on-year. This growth is mainly due to the newly commissioned
540,000 tons of production capacity, which is concentrated in Gansu and Inner Mongolia. However, due to the overall market oversupply, the actual supply increase may
be only 20,000 tons.
2. Demand situation
Total demand mainly comes from crude steel, magnesium metal, stainless steel and exports, but each market segment faces different challenges and changes. Crude
steel demand is affected by multiple factors such as policies, infrastructure investment and manufacturing recovery, while non-steel demand may bring a small increase.
3. Cost dynamics
Currently, coal and electricity prices are well linked, and the cost focus in 2025 is on electricity and lignite prices. With the implementation of the dual carbon policy, the
production cost of high-energy-consuming products will be more affected.
4. Market outlook
The supply and demand of the ferrosilicon market is slightly in excess, and it will be difficult to trend up if there is a lack of administrative production restrictions. It is
expected that the price fluctuation of ferrosilicon will be relatively limited in 2025, and may return to the oscillating state of 2018-2020.
5. Policy impact
The dual carbon policy will accelerate the elimination of old production capacity and regulate new production capacity, which will have a profound impact on the entire
ferroalloy market. In particular, the production costs of high-energy-consuming industries may change due to policy promotion.
6. Summary
In 2025, the ferrosilicon market will face a small surplus of supply and demand balance, and the price trend will be jointly affected by multiple factors, including policy
orientation, production costs and changes in market demand.